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Apple Product Forecasting Euphoria Gone Wild

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Let us dwell a few moments on real-life forecast error and another case of Apple related euphoria gone wild. Over the weekend, Apple, Inc. new iPad tablet had its official public product launch where consumers were able to actually buy and take possession of their first iPad.  Initial reports in the blogosphere and business media indicated longer-than-expected lines.  A Wall Street Journal article (paid subscription may be required) noted that a Piper Jaffrey analyst actually doubled his initial forecast of first day sales estimates to a range of 600,000 to 700,000 units including pre-orders.  That same analyst also raised his full year 2010 unit forecast to 5.5 million, from a previous 2.8 million units. Research firm iSuppli went even further predicting that 7.1 million iPads would be sold on a worldwide basis in 2010.  Forrester Research, on the other hand, remained conservative and predicted 3 million units. This huge disparity […]

Goal Conflict- Procurement vs. Broader Supply Chain: Where do you Stand?

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On his Supply Chain & Technology blog, Christian Verstraete provided rather insightful commentary in his Procurement vs. Supply Chain, what a match posting relating to the continuing conflict of goals among procurement and the broader functional supply chain community, and I cannot agree more with his observations.  “Unfortunately, we are still measuring many procurement specialists by how much they can reduce the cost of supply,” notes Christian. “Taking an end-to-end look at the supply chain and analyzing the implications of such decisions, are typically not within their scope (procurement) of responsibilities.” During these past weeks and months I have noted how so many companies continue to set rather aggressive supply cost reduction goals in spite of evidence that the global recession has reached bottom, even with some industries on the path to recovery.  Too often, the pattern seems to be one where incremental savings driven from supply cost reduction initiatives […]