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2017 Industry Specific Prediction- Consumer Packaged Food and Beverage Supply Chains

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In our recently unveiled 2017 Predictions for Industry Supply Chains (Available for complimentary downloading in our Research Center), we elected to include Consumer Packaged Food (CPG) and Beverage supply chains in our industry-specific predictions. We have included this industry in our industry-specific predictions for the past three years and already, industry dynamics of activist investors surrounding the industry are once again underway, and the supply chain stakes are becoming far higher and likely destructive.

Consumers have not wavered in their more health-conscious view of food and beverage consumption and their shopping preferences continue to shun traditional processed foods. They demand healthy food choices containing natural and sustainable ingredients. Throughout 2016, these trends continued to be reflected in the business and financial performance of globally branded food producers who now continue to be challenged in achieving single-digit top-line sales and profitability growth. Global observers such as the Economist question whether the global expansion and presence model has run out of steam because of diminishing financial returns.

As what occurred in 2016, declining profits and meager sales growth continues to spawn activist investors to influence certain CPG, food, and beverage firms to consolidate. The prime disruptor in this industry remains Brazil based 3G Capital and specifically Heinz-Kraft Foods. A report from Fortune describes the 3G Capital playbook as a “meritocracy” that is on track to consume the food industry. The model includes wholesale replacement of an existing senior management team and what is often described as a blitzkrieg of cost cutting predicated on zero-based budgeting tenets. This model is further described in the analogy of a swimming shark with tendencies of buy, squeeze and repeat with the next target.

When 3G acquired Heinz, upwards of 7000 job cuts were initiated while five production facilities were shuttered. Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBITA) improved by 8 percentage points over an 18-month period. Heinz then acquired Kraft in 2015, and reports point to upwards of an additional 5000 in headcount reductions. A recent published Fortune report cites research firm AllianceBerstein as indicating that Kraft-Heinz is already 88 percent towards its goal to cut an additional $1.5 billion in annual costs by the end of this year.

Acquisitions govern growth as opposed to just organic sales growth.  The CPG industry is now consumed with the threat of 3G, and as Fortune observes: “The entire food industry is “3G-ing” itself before Kraft-Heinz can do it to the companies.” Fortune writes: “The whole food industry is speculating who’s next.” We concur and we predicted that there will indeed be another major acquisition involving a major branded CPG company in 2017.

Little did we know that it would come so soon and with far broader scope.

Dynamics Already Underway and the Stakes Increase

Last week featured the news of what our prediction included although the target and size was a big surprise. Kraft-Heinz issued a $143 billion acquisition offer for global CPG provider Unilever. While the offer was quickly rejected as insufficient, and subsequently withdrawn, the implications are far larger and once-again reverberating across the industry while all await the next shoe to drop. The Economist headline was: Barbarians at the Plate: 3G Missed Unilever but its methods are spreading.

Within the past few days Campbell Soup and General Mills reported disappointing sales and earnings. Campbell’s cited mistakes in its fresh-foods business unit that included a recent product recall and decision to harvest carrots while they were still small. Late last week, General Mills reported weaker than expected revenues from sales of yogurt and soup along with weakened consumer demand. The firm’s outlook for the remainder of its fiscal year that ends in May is expected to decline by 4 percent.

Today, The Wall Street Journal reported that Unilever is now pivoting from the Kraft-Heinz attempted acquisition with its Board now deliberating on options to deliver greater short-term value for shareholders.  That could include the sale of the firm’s current food division or attempting an acquisition of its own in the personal care area.

Meanwhile, speculation abounds as to what will be the next target for Kraft-Heinz. Names such as Mondelez International, Campbell Soup, Coca Cola Company, General Mills, Kellogg, and others are being tossed about.

With such a backdrop, pressures increase on remaining CPG food and beverage companies along with associated food suppliers.  By our lens, the survivors are those that embrace innovation and find ways to best accommodate today’s consumer choices.

Industry Supply Chains Buffeted from the Impact

In the middle of such forces are CPG focused industry supply chains that continue to be pressured for additional cost reductions and productivity savings. This will unfortunately, continue and at a more intense pace.  At the same time, visionaries continue to believe that the future still comes from process and technology enabled innovation and in sourcing, planning and marketing healthier and more organic food products. Thus, many food supply chains have heavy requirements for continuous new product introductions and in developing distribution strategies that accommodate an entirely different customer fulfillment need. Coupled with that is satisfying consumer needs for visibility into all levels of the food supply chain and specifically where food has originated.

All the above will be the primary agenda for CPG and beverage supply chains in the coming year. The winners are supply chain leaders who educate senior management on the differences of supply chain as a cost center vs. a business innovation enabler. They will also be those that can keep a laser focus on the end-goal, meeting and accommodating far different consumer preferences with changed thinking and distribution methods. Many will need to be equipped to deal with our other 2017 predictions such as responding to the perfect storm in the requirements for skilled supply chain talent across many supply chain, procurement and distribution dimensions along with the needs for advanced technology to support more predictive decision-making.

Bottom-line, the CPG industry remains in a state of defense and apprehension, and by our Supply Chain Matters lens, industry supply chains will pay the inevitable price in needs for further cost and headcount reductions along with blocked efforts to instill added product, process, and resilience to overall business support capabilities.

Stating the Obvious

Sometimes, a blog such as ours needs to be blunt in viewpoint to provoke additional thinking or changed mindset. The wave of activist investors surrounding the CPG food and beverage industry is destructive to supply chain capability and innovation, and the timing could not come at the worse time.  CPG industry supply chains and their network of food suppliers require the ability to support a business need for healthier and more organic food choices for consumers.  This wave of zero-based budgeting and cost cutting will not likely achieve that objective, and we as consumers, will have limited choices for healthier food. It is a race to the bottom with notions that the survivors gain the spoils.

One must wonder what the end-state really implies, short-term investor rewards or industry supply chains with very little capability to support required process, technology, and product innovation.

Bob Ferrari

© Copyright 2017. The Ferrari Consulting and Research Group and the Supply Chain Matters® blog. All rights reserved.


Breaking Supply Chain Tech News- E2open to Merge with Steelwedge

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Today, supply chain focused B2B business network tech provider E2open formally announced that it E2open logo JPG highres 125x125 Breaking Supply Chain Tech News  E2open to Merge with Steelwedgehas merged with supply chain planning and S&OP technology support provider Steelwedge. From our lens, the announcement is of little surprise and provides some interesting new dynamics in the market.

We note that the announcement is to be expected since two of our specific published 2017 Predictions for Industry and Global Supply Chains (available for complimentary downloading in our Research Center) called for either increased M&A activity or increased business intelligence investment in the B2B business network platform areas  in the supply chain tech area.

Today’s announcement is of little surprise since of late, Steelwedge has by our observations and sources, been struggling to gain further market momentum in the supply chain planning area. The company clearly needed an infusion of new capital and thought leadership as well as more savvy marketing and sales execution resources. Privately-held E2open continues its track record for augmenting its B2B network capabilities for synchronizing supply chain execution with augmented advanced supply chain planning, business intelligence and simulation capabilities. Since being taken private, prior planning and business intelligence acquisitions included Icon-SCM, and Terra Technology, both smaller providers providing augmented technology to add to the E2open platform, along with broader capabilities for E2open to offer in the market particularly those related to augmented sales and operations planning (S&OP) business process support. Both providers have been prior sponsors of this blog.

There is little information in the announcement regarding how the two organizations will come together in terms of organizational teams and strategy moving forward. We expect that will change and that E2open management will reach out to the existing Steelwedge user base with some added information. Obviously, this latest acquisition is part of a broader strategy to move E2open into a more augmented capability.  However, this provider has its own set of challenges in marketing and sales execution. The open question still remains as to the effectivity of current messaging to the market.

We initially advise existing Steelwedge users to take a wait and see perspective since the upsides far outweigh the downsides in terms of new capabilities.  One area to really focus upon is any future impacts regarding pricing strategies along with global support. We expect some eventual fallout in staffing.

In 2017 Prediction Six, we predicted a renaissance in supply chain focused business services and technology investments, That prediction called for one or two acquisitions involving high-profile supply chain best-of-breed vendors along with a continuation of acquisitions surrounding IoT focused technologies involving existing enterprise class providers. In Prediction Seven, we called for the existence of enhanced supply chain intelligence capabilities among B2B network platform vendors paying dividends for industry supply chains. That prediction called for supply chain B2B platform providers such as E2open moving in the direction of blending supply chain wide planning and execution related transactional data with analytics, cognitive and business intelligence capture across both horizontal and vertical extended supply chain networks. Such analytics and predictive trending information would then be moved to and from various existing business application systems related to planning and customer fulfillment.

We view this latest announcement a clear reinforcement as to both predictions.

Supply Chain Matters will provide further analysis on this development once further information is available. We view this to be one of other announcements to come in the supply chain focused tech area in the months to come.

Stay tuned.

Bob Ferrari

© Copyright 2017. The Ferrari Consulting and Research Group and the Supply Chain Matters© blog. All rights reserved.


2017 Predictions for Supply Chain Management- Guest Contributions

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We just completed our unveiling and deep-dives on our 2017 Predictions for Industry and Global Supply Chains and the complete 44-page Research Advisory report is now available for complimentary downloading in our Research Center.

We now feature compilations of the many external guest contributions that were received from our readers.  holding the future 300x211 2017 Predictions for Supply Chain Management  Guest Contributions

A Thailand and Southeast Asia Perspective

In mid-January, this author noted a published report from Thailand’s Bangkok Post, The state of supply chain management in 2017.   This article was penned by two supply chain consultants with extensive experience in Thailand and the rest of Southeast Asia and observed: “that most supply chains still struggle with the basics and are not in any position to realise benefits from new tools and technologies.” We reached out by email to authors Barry Elliott and Chris Catto-Smith, (acknowledged  readers of Supply Chain Matters) and received very insightful additional feedback comments. Each has been practicing supply chain management consultants in this region for the best part of 20 years. Responding to our specific question as to whether their observations vary from one industry or another, or in upper or lower tiers of the supply chain, the response was no, it does not. “Little advantage is taken of the SCM body of knowledge, partly due to not knowing what they (SCM teams) don’t know and partly due to NIH (not invented here).” Clarified was that there are certainly shiny exceptions but interest levels to learn and implement the basics are somewhat challenging.

We share this input because it provided us a grounding to the realization that not all geographic regions feature the same capabilities and tendencies toward transformation, and that should remain an important context towards planning of 2017 initiatives and skills development.

 

Supply Chain Skills and Talent Management

Employee reference check provider AllisonTaylor shared Noteworthy Trends to Watch in the Career and Work Balance area to share with Supply Chain Matters readers.

  • Workplace well-being and flexibility has risen dramatically in importance and becomes critical for attracting new talent.
  • As highly tech-savvy employees continue to enter the workplace, new internal communications tools such as text messaging, live chat and instant messaging will increasingly replace traditional email.
  • Blended workplaces, where freelance workers team up with full-time employees, become increasingly predominant.
  • The reference checking process takes an unconventional turn as employer’s are more likely to call job seeker’s former supervisors, rather than follow traditional routes of contacting HR.
  • References become a powerful extension of a job seeker’s resume.
  • Virtual reality tools begin to revolutionize recruiting and training.

 

Business and Supply Chain Technology

Fusion Worldwide Chief Operating Officer Paul Romano shares his predictions for 2017.

  • Memory will continue to be an issue. Memory manufacturers have finally gotten what they wanted- increases in ASP’s after years of drought and cuts. The good news for them is that the end does not seem to be in sight. A convergence of factors will continue to    drive issues in memory. We may see things let up there and there but expect problems to exist for much of the year.
  • The pace of mergers and acquisitions will not let After a year that saw some blockbuster M&A’s, many are hoping to take a ‘wait and see’ attitude. Not so fast. With business picking up in many sectors, companies are looking for ways to expand as well as round out portfolios and offerings. Expect the M&A activity to continue     unabated into 2017.
  • The sharing economy comes to the supply Companies such as Uber and Airbnb ushered in the      sharing economy. Next up, the supply chain. Most efforts have been directed towards the consumer. However, as interconnectivity and the concept of the digital supply chain gain traction, expect to see attempts to create efficiencies and opportunities around the supply chain. Uber is already in the package delivery business; could we see an Airbnb app for  short-term use of unused factory, warehouse, or line space, perhaps?
  • 3D Printing becomes the disruptive technology many predicted two years ago.
  • The outcome of the Brexit negotiations is already affecting trade flows between the UK and the EU and leaves a big question mark on how big or small the impact will be.    This can potentially devaluate the Euro even more against the dollar which will impact European OEM’s trading in USD.

 

2017 Predictions Related to the Food Industry

We spoke with Bill Michalski, Chief Solution Officer at ArrowStream, A SaaS technology provider for food service supply chains, concerning his predictions for the food industry. His input was that the number one priority for 2017 is making food safety and traceability a top priority and would remain the largest area of focus in the near future as-well. In our discussion, Michalski emphasized that the year ahead will reflect the notions of when urgency meets the reality of food safety in terms of full product traceability for any given restaurant chain. A further challenge remains off-contract purchasing and non-vetted suppliers among larger food chains. Michalski concurs that traceability and supply chain sustainability initiatives can be linked for broader business benefits.

 

Service Parts Inventory Management

Synchron’s CMO Gary Brooks’s 2017 Technology Supply Chain Predictions calls for service parts inventory management and pricing optimization to grow in interest because of the increasing realization that both capabilities are key revenue levers for the aftersales supply chain. Brooks further predicts that Cloud-based technology has become critical for the supply chain and that adoption rates will rise further. “Supply chain players will need to embrace the full potential of cloud technology or risk falling even further behind in 2017.” Other predictions are that predictive analytics will finally be mainstream in the supply chain and aftersales market, and that driverless vehicles and drones play a bigger role in supply chain.

 

If there are any other 2017 Predictions that readers would like to share, please send them along and we will compile them for sharing.

 

Bob Ferrari

© Copyright 2016. The Ferrari Consulting and Research Group and the Supply Chain Matters® blog. All rights reserved.


2017 Industry Specific Predictions- Pharmaceutical and Drug Supply Chains

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Thus far, we have posted deep-dives on the first nine of our 2017 Predictions for Industry and Global Supply Chains.  The one prediction remaining is our final Prediction Ten, which for each year, dives into what we foresee as unique industry-specific supply chain challenges or environments for the coming year.

As Editor, I have also decided for the purposes of brevity and reader interest, to present each industry in a separate Supply Chain Matters blog posting. We will be also posting these industry-specific predictions in a faster cadence.

In prior industry-specific predictions posting, we dived into Automotive Supply Chain Residing Across North America.

We then dived into Commercial Aerospace Manufacturing Supply Chains.

Next came B2C, B2B-to-C and Traditional Retail Focused Supply Chains.

We then moved to Apparel and Footwear Producers and Respective Supply Chains.

Next-up:

Pharmaceutical and Drug Supply Chains DSC0083 300x245 2017 Industry Specific Predictions  Pharmaceutical and Drug Supply Chains

For the first time, we are including pharmaceutical and drug supply chains in our industry-specific predictions for 2017. The principal reasons are twofold and somewhat inter-related. The increasingly global reach of the industry’s various supply chains is adding continued possibilities for risk and disruption. Second, within the U.S. especially, there remains an enormous groundswell of political and social backlash directed at what is perceived as artificially high and inflated pricing stemming from conflicting buyer self-interests across the industry’s extended supply chain.

Global Sourcing

Today’s manufacturing and drug capacity profiles among proprietary or generic drug brands span countries such as Ireland, India, Israel, China, Singapore, and the United States. Some produce drugs for their immediate regions, while many export globally. Of late, there has been a shift of manufacturing away from the U.S. to take advantage of lower manufacturing cost and tax savings. The bulk of active pharmaceutical ingredients, the primary raw material compounds related to other drugs, are sourced in China and India.

According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, the United States is now the biggest importer of pharmaceuticals from other countries. Incidents of counterfeit drugs and medicines have been a constant challenge and lately, conformance to generally accepted production practices have become troublesome from production facilities across India, where many generic drug production facilities are located. The government of India recently cited 200 India based drug manufacturers for high risk in compliance standards.

Ongoing Business Challenges

In 2011, the industry reeled from an average of over 250 shortages of critical drugs as monitored by the U.S. Federal Drug Administration.  Much has been accomplished to alleviate drug shortages since that time but continued work remains. As of the end of January 2017, the FDA was reporting 57 drug shortages, the bulk of which were included in categories such as Pediatric Medicine (26), Oncology (6), Gastroenterology (9), Endocrinology (6), among others.

For years, the industry has danced around or delayed responses to mandates for implementing item-level traceability and tracking of life-saving drugs and medicines. By November 2017, pharmaceutical companies will be required to mark their products with a National Drug Code (NDC), serial number, lot number and expiration date in both machine-readable and human-readable format according to the Drug Supply Chain Security Act (DSCSA) of 2013. A diverse group of 44 companies, from manufacturers to wholesalers to solution providers, have further come together to develop updated GS1 guidelines on the use of GS1’s Electronic Product Code Information Services (EPCIS) for lot-level management and item-level traceability of pharmaceuticals. DSCSA is planned to be implemented over the next 10 years in three different phases while companies are transitioning their systems and preparing for the various requirements. Ten years is a considerable amount of time and some on the customer and patient side continue with frustrations as to the industry’s overall progress.

This is an industry that continues to demonstrate a general lack of common goal collaboration across an extended supply chain with conflicting stakeholder interests. Thus, the challenge of business transformation or faster momentum can continue to be bogged down.

A recent wave of high-profile, large global-scale mergers and acquisitions have further disrupted individual supply chains in areas of assimilating business and supply chain processes, procurement software systems technology and talent.

Geopolitical Forces

The new Trump Administration and the U.S. Congress have cited the pharmaceutical and drug industry in the context for both new healthcare care reform, excessive drug pricing and in current sourcing practices of drugs globally. In late January 2017, President Trump, at a meeting in the White House with a group of high-lever pharmaceutical drug company executives, indicated that he wanted more manufacturing to occur in the United States.

As noted in our other industry-specific predictions, if the U.S. Congress were to adopt business tax reform legislation that could impose a multi-industry import tax, pharmaceutical and drug companies importing raw compounds and medicines could be financially impacted. We therefore predict the need for a lot of product sourcing scenario planning and analysis in the coming months.

For all the above, we include pharmaceutical and drug supply chains in our 2017 Industry Unique prediction category.

 

This concludes our Supply Chain Matters series of ten 2017 Predictions for Industry and Global Supply Chains, predicting a year that promises to be:

  • Consumed by global uncertainty
  • Somewhat challenged in terms of supporting business top-line growth
  • Sure to place supply chain sourcing teams in constant scenario analysis and business advisor roles to senior management
  • Noticeably higher in the supply chain risk potential

Again, our goal is to provide clients and blog readers insights and helpful information in setting agendas and initiatives for the existing year. Throughout 2017, Supply Chain Matters will be publishing periodic updates related to each of our predictions.

Our full 44-page Research Advisor Report is now available for complimentary downloading in our Research Center. We do ask that you provide basic contact information as well as a valid email address and phone number. As a reminder, we do not sell or offer reader and contact information to any third-party.

If we can be of any assistance to your organization in the coming year, give us a call or email us at: info <at> supply-chain-matters <dot> com .

Bob Ferrari

© Copyright 2017. The Ferrari Consulting and Research Group and the Supply Chain Matters® blog. All rights reserved.

 


2017 Industry Specific Predictions- Apparel and Footwear Producers and Respective Supply Chains

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Thus far, we have posted deep-dives on the first nine of our 2017 Predictions for Industry and Global Supply Chains.  The one prediction remaining is our final Prediction Ten, which for each year, dives into what we foresee as unique industry-specific supply chain challenges or environments for the coming year.

As Editor, I have also decided for the purposes of brevity and reader interest, to present each industry in a separate Supply Chain Matters blog posting. We will be also posting these industry-specific predictions in a faster cadence.

In prior industry-specific predictions posting, we dived into Automotive Supply Chain Residing Across North America .

We then dived into Commercial Aerospace Manufacturing Supply Chains.

Next came B2C, B2B-to-C and Traditional Retail Focused Supply Chains.

Next-up:

Apparel and Footwear Producers and Respective Supply Chains

Somewhat like the automotive industry, there is no industry as globally supply chain linked as that of apparel.  Apparel supply chains are global in nature with many interlinked flows and sometimes, hidden flows. Because of the high content of direct labor involved in the production of apparel and footwear, the cost of direct labor is a prime determinant as is the overall cost of transportation to move goods to designated geographic markets.

U.S. consumers have become very accustomed to expect cheaper apparel prices.  More affluent consumers demand higher and latest fashion and have been willing to pay a premium price for availability. The Trump Administration policies to initiate business tax reform and protect U.S. jobs will likewise have a significant impact to apparel and footwear supply chain sourcing and pricing strategies.

The geopolitical forces of increased trade protectionism is expected to hit U.S. apparel producers and retailers rather significantly in 2017. High volume, lower-margin apparel and footwear producers must continue to rely on global lower-direct cost manufacturing sources such as China, Bangladesh, Indonesia and other lower-cost regions for production of goods. Similarly, U.S. based apparel brand owners can source fabrics and yarns in the United States while Mexican or Central America based apparel firms perform cutting and sewing operations. Under the existing NAFTA agreement, the goods flow freely and duty-free across borders in North America.

Any threat of a trade war among the U.S. and China, or a border adjusted tax on goods imported from other countries, will have a dramatic impact on apparel and footwear financial margins.

At the same time, traditional retailers are under enormous profitability pressures in 2017.  Retailers with volume buying clout may well force suppliers to shoulder the burden of increased footwear and apparel costs. They likewise can continue to turn a blind eye to the ongoing and elusive practices of hidden sub-contracting of production among low-cost region apparel producers. Similarly, industry efforts directed at better and fairer enforcement of social responsibility practices related to sub-standard factory working conditions and excessive daily labor hours’ burdens of apparel workers in low-cost global manufacturing regions could be re-railed by a new round of industry cost burdens.

Smaller, more specialty retailers may have little choice but to pass along cost increases in higher prices. More popular branded or in-demand producers may be able to pass along price increases as-well, but that can be risky.

Industry disruptors focused on “fast fashion” business strategies have been leveraging supply chain near-shoring strategies to provide far more agile responses to the latest and most prominent fashion trends. Their appeal to higher margin, in-demand fast fashion supports higher pricing and thus flexibilities to support near-shoring of fast production. The key to fast fashion has proven to be more agile supply chain sourcing strategies and that will expand in 2017. That may prove to be a significant strategic advantage and opportunity in 2017, but here again, if the existing NAFTA agreement is changed or eliminated in 2017, such strategies will need to be revisited or altered.

This concludes our 2017 prediction related specifically to apparel and footwear industry supply chains. Next up in the industry-specific category will be pharmaceutical and drug supply chains.

A final reminder, all ten of our 2017 predictions will be available in a full research report which we expect to be available for downloading in our Research Center by February 10th.

Bob Ferrari

© Copyright 2017. The Ferrari Consulting and Research Group and the Supply Chain Matters® blog. All rights reserved.

 


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