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Peak Holiday Season Surge- The Final Crunch Begins

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It is Friday, December 19 and the peak holiday surge of in-store and online customer fulfillment is just a two business days and hours away and the final crunch is underway.  Thus far, our community already has some acquired learning from the 2014 holiday surge, learning, that stings goods producers, shippers as well as retailers and e-tailers.

Business and industry media have each reported how the U.S. West Coast port crisis impacted various brand-name retailers and exporters and their efforts to get inventory where it was needed. Goods arrived late or not at all, forcing retailers to shuffle planned merchandising and promotional plans.  Yesterday, The Wall Street Journal reported on frustrations expressed by Ann Inc. owner of Ann Taylor, Chico’s, Lululemon Athletica, Perry Ellis International, Tommy Bahama and others not only for positioning holiday inventory but upcoming January inventories as well.  Western U.S. exporters missed their holiday shipment windows because of the port back-ups, and will likely suffer the financial implications.

This week, FedEx reported its fiscal second-quarter earnings and beyond the numbers, reported that its network was impacted by the port crisis. The global parcel carrier implemented additional flexible airfreight capacity out of Asia to accommodate a surge of shipment re-routing needs, but capacity was described as very tight.   FedEx management indicated that the carrier had to place limits on customer volumes in order to fulfill service requirements. As Supply Chain Matters has previously indicated, regardless of how the final numbers turn out, the west coast port crisis will result in noteworthy shifts in transportation strategies in the months to come.

Executives indicated that the current peak season represents the busiest in Fedex history, and volumes have been “more rational” and evenly spread. Black Friday and Cyber Monday turned out to be week-long events which FedEx executives expressed as a positive impact moving forward. Winter weather has generally cooperated with the exception of incidents of some severe storms impacting both the western and eastern U.S. coasts.

The U.S. Post Office made its presence as the Sunday delivery partner for Amazon Prime customers, and business and other media report that USPS workers are drained from having to work continuous 60 hour weeks without a break. Speaking of Amazon, the online retailer communicated to its Prime members that this weekend was the deadline to insure two-day holiday delivery. That is a hopeful sign that Amazon is cooperating with the pleas of parcel carriers to not promote the last-minute overnight shipments that crippled UPS in 2013.

Brick and mortar retailers implemented broader aspects of ship from retail store to fulfill 2014 online orders. Retailer Target is utilizing 136 of a total of1800 U.S. retail stores as local online pick and pack shipment nodes. According to the WSJ, Wal-Mart is utilizing 83 of its Supercenters as online ship from store nodes and Macy’s broadened its in-store shipping capabilities by allocating time prior to store opening for pick and pack of online orders.

The final crunch within logistics and fulfillment networks has begun. Today at Supply Chain Matters, we have placed a number of online orders with standard delivery terms as our own test of last-minute response.  Already, one of our online orders has moved delivery date to December 23 from the original indication of two days prior. We placed one online, two-day delivery order with Samsung which was received on-time, as confirmed. We will initiate another test on Monday.

This author pulled into a local Mobil branded gasoline station at 7pm local time this evening and observed a UPS delivery carriage re-fueling at the diesel pump. Apparently, there were more deliveries to complete.

The last verse of the poem: Stopping by Woods on a Snowy Evening by Robert Frost exclaims:

The woods are lovely, dark and deep,  

But I have promises to keep,  

And miles to go before I sleep,  

And miles to go before I sleep.

And so it is for brick and mortar, online retailers, carriers and logistics networks for the last days of holiday peak 2014. The last mile crunch of fulfillment is about to commence.

Bob Ferrari


Supply Chain Matters 2015 Predictions for Industry and Global Supply Chains- Part One

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Once a year, just before the start of the New Year, the Ferrari Consulting and Research Group and the Supply Chain Matters Blog provide our annual ten predictions concerning industry and global supply chains for the coming year. We have maintained this tradition since the founding of this blog in 2008 and it continues to be quite popular with our readers and clients.

These predictions are provided in the spirit of advising supply chain organizations in setting management agenda for the year ahead, as well as helping our readers and clients to prepare their supply chain management teams in establishing programs, initiatives and educational agendas for the upcoming year. Predictions are sourced from synthesizing developments and trends that are occurring in supply chain business, process and technology dimensions, researching various economic, industry and other forecasting data, along with input from clients, thought leaders and global supply chain observers. We take predictions seriously and align our research and blog commentaries to focus on each specific prediction area throughout the coming year.

Supply Chain Matters will revisit each of our annual predictions at the end of the year to ascertain how close or how far each fared.  The report card regarding our 2014 Predictions can be re-visited at the below web links:

2014 Predictions Report Card- Part One

2014 Predictions Report Card- Part Two

2014 Predictions Report Card- Part Three

2014 Predictions Report Card- Part Four

2014 Predictions Report Card- Part Five

 

We continue to believe that industry analysts should openly state their insight and opinion of what to expect in the coming year without the need for a paid subscription.  Readers therefore have the opportunity to compare and contrast various sources of predictions.

As in the past, all ten of these 2015 predictions will be included in a more detailed research report which will be made available for no-cost downloads in our Research Center in January. Readers will be able to register to download a copy or can email us directly.  More details regarding that process will come later.

In this Part One posting, we outline our first five predictions for 2015.

Drum roll please …..

 

2015 Prediction One: More optimistic global economic growth with the usual caveats and uncertainties

Forecasts point to an optimistic global economic outlook for 2015 with continued cautions and unknowns for industry supply chains.  The bright spots will continue to be the United States and Mexico.

The October 2014 forecast from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts 3.8 percent global growth vs. 3.3 percent in 2014. Advanced Economies are predicted to grow 2.3 percent vs. 1.8 percent in 2014. World trade growth is expected to expand 5 percent in dollar terms.

The most concern resides for the Eurozone, where tepid growth and deflation remains an identified and concerning risk.

China’s growth is predicted to be 7.1 percent vs projected 7.4 percent in 2014. China’s economic planners will be caught in a difficult balancing act to manage growth but deal with high levels of debt. We have read of more pessimistic forecasts foretelling of broader setbacks ahead for China’s economic growth, with concerns for a stumble.  Then again, China’s economic leaders were adroit in avoiding a stumble in 2014.

According to the IMF, developing economies are predicted to grow 5.0 percent vs. 4.4 percent in 2014.  A significant surprise will be India which is expected to grow 6.4 percent vs. 5.6 percent in 2014. Growth is expected to accelerate in Latin America with Brazil and Mexico leading the charge. Argentina remains an ongoing concern.

The IMF expects resurgence of U.S. economy to continue at 2.3 percent vs. projected 1.8 percent in 2014. However a poll of 50 economists conducted by The Wall Street Journal in September indicates closer to 3 percent U.S. GDP growth in 2015. For the United States, the ISM PMI Index in November was reported as 58.7, a significant 7.4 percentage points higher than the value recorded in January.

The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI Index, a composite index and recognized benchmark of composite global supply chain and production activity provided mixed signals by November of 2014. An overall value of 51.8 was recorded in November reflecting expansion of manufacturing production for the 25th consecutive month, but the rate of expansion eased to its lowest level since August 2013. Growth in new orders was recorded as a 16-month low with the trend in international trade volumes stagnated. North America continues to be reported as a key growth region while concerns were expressed for stagnation in China and further subdued growth for the Eurozone sector.

Another area of concern is fluctuations or shifts in global currency, particularly Asian currencies and the Chinese yuan. As we pen these predictions, the currency of Russia has been impacted by significant de-valuation.

The takeaway for industry supply chains and their sales and operations (S&OP) processes is to anticipate another year of needs to be able to predict supply chain demand and supply needs on an individual geographic region or country basis. Generalized planning no longer suffices and industry supply chain teams will need the means to be able to respond to short-term market opportunities or sudden changing trends.

2015 Prediction Two: General Moderation and Reduction of Commodity Costs with Industry Exceptions

Expect a continued overall moderation trend for the cost of commodities with certain industry specific exceptions.  Dramatically lower oil prices in 2015 will be the biggest headline driving commodity and pricing trends in 2015.

As of mid-December, the Standard & Poors GSCI Index of broad based commodities is projecting a 27 percent decrease in overall commodity prices over the next twelve months.

As we pen our 2015 predictions, the prices of crude oil have plunged to their lowest levels in five years after the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its forecast for global oil demand on the fifth occasion in six months. The news has added volatility among global equity markets as investors become increasingly concerned about the implications. Global oil prices have consequently plunged from the peak of $110 per barrel to a range of $60-$70. Some forecasts now peg 2015 oil prices as low as $50 per barrel.

Global and industry supply chain strategies are driven by the forces related to oil prices and the cost of energy and thus this commodity trend looms large for broader implications in 2015. The open question is whether the trend is permanent or short-lived.

Purchasing and commodity teams can therefore anticipate inbound cost savings in the coming year with the usual exceptions related to unforeseen weather or risk events.

 

2015 Prediction Three: Momentum for U.S. and North America Based Manufacturing Sourcing Continues but Motivates Broader Needs

We predict that the momentum for U.S. and North America based manufacturing will continue in 2015 with discernable benefits for certain industries. The need to broaden investments in certain industry supply ecosystems and U.S. logistics and transportation infrastructure will continue to dominate business headlines and industry agenda.

Throughout 2014, U.S. and North America based supply chain related activity continued at a steady state.  As of October, 16 of the total 18 tracked industries within ISM’s PMI indices were reporting growth momentum.

The continued growth of U.S. and North America manufacturing comes from a number of factors not the least of which have been the ongoing double-digit increases of labor costs in China, increased positive momentum of the U.S. economy and more attractive energy costs throughout North America. Specific efforts by Wal-Mart, other retailers and manufacturers concerning significant long-term commitments for sourcing products in the region have helped immensely.

In August of 2014, the Boston Consulting Group noted in its report, Shifting Economics of Global Manufacturing, that in some cases, the shifts in relative costs of manufacturing among China and North America have placed Mexico as the cheaper low-cost manufacturing alternative.

However, the sourcing of U.S. and North America based manufacturing continues to uncover gaps in globally competitive component supply chain networks, many of which still reside in Asia or China. This is especially the case in high tech and consumer electronics, footwear, apparel and other industries. Continued momentum is thus increasingly dependent on further re-building of global cost competitive North America based supply ecosystems among multi-industry supply chains.

A caveat for 2015 stems from the plunging price of oil and energy outlined in Prediction Two which could influence some manufacturers to remain concentrated in an Asia or Eastern Europe based sourcing strategy.

 

2015 Prediction Four: Internet of Things (IoT) Continues to Attract Wide Multi-Industry Interest But Certain Challenges Need to be Purposely Addressed

Cross-industry interest levels and momentum surrounding B2B products and services leveraging Internet of Things (IoT) coupling sensor-based based technologies will continue to attract wide multi-industry interest. IoT provides a new era of interconnected and intelligent physical devices and/or machines that will revolutionize supply chain processes related to production, transportation, logistics and service management. We expect more technology vendors to jump into this area along with heightened M&A activity as these vendors position for industry needs and requirements.

IoT will further drive a convergence among product and service focused supply chain planning and execution processes as well as certain product lifecycle management information integration needs. PLM and SLM provider PTC is a current example of this dimension but other vendors will be attracted to this business model.

The realities in the lack of consistent or conflicting global-wide standards, overcoming data security concerns and scalability of networks will provide more visible challenges for broader industry deployments.  We have recently indicated a feeling of de-ja -vu for the replay of early RFID efforts, as vendors tended to ignore certain realities of the technology. Vendors will need to step-up efforts to address current challenges and individual industry needs.

 

2015 Prediction Five: Noted Industry Specific Supply Chain Challenges

Noted industry specific supply chain challenges will remain in B2C-Retail, Aerospace and Consumer Product Goods (CPG) sectors.  Automotive manufacturers will have to address continued shifting trends in global market demand and a renewed imperative for corporate-wide product and vehicle platform quality conformance measures.

B2C and Retail

Global retailers continue to be challenged in emerging and traditional markets and in permanent shifts in consumer shopping behaviors. In 2014, retailers encountered the realities of lower margins for online fulfillment, the needs to invest in enhanced inventory management, distrusted fulfillment and order management capabilities, and the perfect-storm presence of developments that resulted in dysfunctional west coast ports.

Retail sales in China, Asia and Australia are expected to surpass that in North America, but China’s efforts in greater scrutiny of foreign-based retailers and service firms will likely continue to impact growth expectations in the coming year. According to industry and business media, retailers are expected to instead target the other so-termed MINI countries (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey) for growth prospects in 2015.

The accelerating trends and implications of Omni-channel and online fulfillment will impact traditional retailers with more casualties recorded in 2015. Amazon, Google and Alibaba will continue to be industry disruptors, movers and shakers in 2015 and Wal-Mart.com may join that list. We would not be surprised if Alibaba concentrates acquisition efforts toward more U.S. and North America online properties to prepare for a presence.

Consumer Product Goods

CPG companies continued to view emerging markets such as China and India as important regions for future growth but experienced the effects a far more complex and risk-laden supply and regulatory networks. The heightened influence and actions of short-term focused activist equity investors, applying dimensions of financial engineering to one or more CPG companies will continue to have special impacts on consumer goods industry supply chains with added, more troublesome cost reduction and consolidation efforts dominating organizational energy and performance objectives. The new winners in CPG will continue to be smaller, more nimble producers who lead in product, supply chain business process and technology innovation.

Aerospace

Industry dominants Airbus and Boeing and their respective supply ecosystems will continue to be challenged with the needs for dramatically stepping-up to make a dent in multi-year order backlogs and in increasing the delivery pace for completed aircraft.  Dramatically lower costs of jet fuel in 2015 will likely present the unique challenges of airline customers easing off on delivery scheduling, but at the same time insuring their competitors do not garner strategic cost advantages in deployment of newer, more fuel efficient and technology laden aircraft. Middle East and Asian based airlines and leasing operators will continue to influence market dynamics and aircraft design needs.

Renewed hostilities involving Ukraine or severe economic or currency crisis within Russia could impact strategic supply of titanium and other metals.  The economic malaise that is expected to continue across the Eurozone region along with expected contraction in China will present 2015 challenges for Airbus and Boeing’s supply ecosystems. Boeing will especially be focused on continuing to influence more cost reduction and productivity efforts among its global suppliers while continuing to address identified issues from regulatory investigations in practicing added supplier oversight for design and production process quality.

 Automotive

In the U.S., an unprecedented and overwhelming level of product recall activity spurred by heightened regulatory compliance pressures will drive product quality and compliance as the overarching corporate-wide imperative. Cascading incidents in 2014 pointed to issues of quality lapses among global suppliers and early-warning of potential component defects. Existing product recall campaigns will most likely extend through the first-half of 2015, placing added strains on aftermarket service dealerships.  Japan based air bag inflator supplier Takada will continue to deal with its creditability crisis and could lose significant new business if it does not step-up and get-ahead of the airbag quality crisis. OEM General Motors will especially be under the looking glass in 2015.

 

This concludes Part One of Supply Chain Matters 2015 Predictions for Industry and Global Supply Chains.  Part Two in this series will unveil our next five predictions.

We encourage readers to share in the Comments section their own predictions on what to expect in 2015.

In the meantime, we extend best wishes for the holiday season and the New year.

Bob Ferrari

©2014 The Ferrari Consulting and Research Group LLC and the Supply Chain Matters blog.  All rights reserved


How a Single Expensive Component Can Inhibit End-of-Year and Customer Fulfillment Goals

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Over the remaining few days of December various supply chain teams will be hard at work supporting end-of-year shipment and revenue milestones. Most supply chain teams are aware that completing key milestones, whether financial, business or management focused, are critically important for compensation and career considerations.

In many cases, singular parts or component assemblies can likely be a cause for multiple end-item shipment delays. We are fairly confident that many of our readers residing in manufacturing, retail or service supply chains can well relate to this situation.

Thus, we were not at all surprised to have run across a Bloomberg published article indicating that Boeing and Airbus production and supply chain teams are working to ensure that 2014 end-of-year and program production and shipment milestone targets are fulfilled.  The December challenge stems from France based Zodiac Aerospace, a supplier of upscale lie-flat airline seats.  Certain deliveries for both the new Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 Dreamliner have requirements for the luxury seats which according to Bloomberg, can cost upwards of $200,000 each because of expensive finishes and complex mechanics. They are described as the “Ferrari” of airline seats.  This author appreciates that analogy.

For Zodiac Aerospace, a month-long labor stoppage within a Texas production facility that ended in late October coupled with backlogged engineering teams working with airlines for final seat design approvals have led up to the current challenges. The supplier is attempting to resolve all late deliveries and return to a normal schedule by mid-2015, but as is often the case, planning teams have been working to move deliveries of other new aircraft that can be completed to December customer delivery.  The article cites American Airlines as an example, who now expects to take delivery of its initial 787 during Q1-2015 rather than this month. American also needs to secure FAA approval to utilize these innovative seats within its new 787 fleet.

The 2014 shipment milestone for the Boeing 787 is 110 aircraft. Airbus encountered a sudden and unexpected delay in delivery of the first A350 to launch customer Qatar Airways because of an unexplained reason. Commercial aerospace supply chain and S&OP teams are thus behind the scenes and hard at work resolving last-minute snafus while working with various customers to move-up or re-schedule deliveries.

When the stakes are high, the individuals and teams that maneuver the various moving parts of the supply chain do matter. While technology can provide helpful tools, in the end, it’s the brainpower, creativity and tenacity of individuals that deliver the bacon.

No doubt all will done to insure December milestones are accomplished.

We share a wise holiday and New Year’s resolution- express your thanks to the planning, execution, procurement and product management professionals that are often called upon to be the last-minute enablers of customer fulfillment.

Bob Ferrari


BMW Announces New CEO with Engineering, Manufacturing and Operations Background

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Supply Chain Matters has previously called attention to executives with supply chain focused leadership experience ascending to higher levels of senior management.  Our last commentary of this nature focused on the ascendancy of Mary Barra as CEO of General Motors.

Now, BMW joins such ranks with the announcement that Harald Kruger will take over as CEO in May 2015. BMW’s current CEO Dr. Norbert Reithofer will step down from the CEO slot a year earlier than planned, because of upcoming changes in German law related to the composition of Supervisory Boards.

According to a BMW Blog posting, Kruger stood out as the most likely board member to step-  up and take the reigns for the next era of leadership at BMW. In its announcement, BMW indicates that Reithofer would move to head the supervisory board of the auto maker, while production executive Harald Krüger would become the BMW’s new chairman.

Similar to the prior background of Mary Barra, Krüger is an engineer by training, and his  previous background within BMW includes roles within manufacturing, product planning and management as well as human resources. A review of his CV of indicates that he began his career in the Technical Planning and Production division and from 1993-1995, worked as a project engineer for plant assembly at the Spartanburg South Carolina production facility. From 1997-2000, Krüger was the head of the Strategic Production Planning department in Munich, and served later positions as Director of Engine Production in the UK and Director of Technical Integration. He he was also responsible for brand management of the MINI, BMW Motorrad and Rolls-Royce brands. Since April of 2013, Krüger has served as Director of BMW Global Production.

According to reporting by The Wall Street Journal, Krüger at 49 years old would become the youngest CEO of any major car maker and signals a “generational change” for BMW leadership. That was obviously another criteria.

Once again it is great to observe that those who served under the umbrella of supply chain, manufacturing or product management operations can have a path for becoming CEO.

These are executives who know that supply chains do matter.

Bob Ferrari

 


New EBook: The Case for Tightly Integrating New Product Introduction and Supply Chain Management

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The business-to-business (B2B) network has become the new opportunity for fostering stronger supply chain and product business relationships with suppliers. More often today, this includes integrating new product management and introduction (NPI) with product design, collaborative manufacturing design and supply chain fulfillment.

Recently, Supply Chain Matters has highlighted a number of current day examples of the critical importance of these relationships. We highlighted recent accident investigation findings from previous Boeing 787 Dreamliner lithium ion battery fires along with findings from a joint FAA and Boeing study published in March which reviewed the broader 787 build program.  Among report findings was added credence to the reality that globally extended aerospace and complex equipment supply chains need to consider more timely two-way integration of product lifecycle management (PLM) and manufacturing process test information across B2B supply chain networks.

In the high tech and consumer electronics sector, product lifecycles are far shorter and NPI cycles occur more frequently. The recent unexpected bankruptcy of a prototype Apple supplier of sapphire glass provided yet another example. Apple’s peak and valley tendencies for extraordinary new product ramp-up and corresponding large-scale production volume surges that correlate with condensed product release cycles place enormous pressures on suppliers and any last-minute product design changes can be a disaster without timely two-way information integration and change assessment. Within automotive supply chains, recent unprecedented levels of product recalls are a reflection of the exposure of common product platform strategies, where common component design is leveraged across multiple models or brands. Many if not all of these multi-industry examples point to the product and production information alignment disconnect.

Under sponsorship of E2open Inc., our research parent The Ferrari Consulting and Research Group recently published an E-Book, The Case for Tightly Integrating New Product Introduction and Supply Chain Management. This document identifies the new opportunity for leveraging the end-to-end supply chain business networks not only for synchronizing planning and fulfillment execution but the new opportunities for incorporating two-way NPI process information as well. Certain B2B networks provide the ability to support a hub-and-spoke, federated data model that spans these broader process areas and bridge the gap in existing PLM and ERP systems for integrating broader forms of process information across extended supply and demand networks.

The E-book is available for complimentary downloading with registration at the following E2open web link. Later this month, we will also feature this E-book in the complimentary section of the Research Center associated with this site.

Bob Ferrari

Disclosure: E2open, Inc. is both a Named Sponsor of Supply Chain Matters and a client of the Ferrari Consulting and Research Group.


More on a Not So Good Week for Airbus- Open Debate on Product Strategy

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In our previous posting yesterday, Supply Chain Matters highlighted the sudden delay in first customer ship of the brand new Airbus A350. Launch customer Qatar Airways announced that it was delaying delivery of the launch A350 XWB aircraft without citing a specific reason for the postponement. Reports seem to indicate that rather than a major setback, Qatar, an influential and highly demanding airline customer is exercising its negotiating powers.

We further echoed reports that a new era of air travel has facilitated a shifting of influence among global airlines in favor of deep-pocketed Middle East based carriers such as Qatar and Emirates.

News of this week’s sudden announcement caused Airbus stock to drop over 10 percent on the Paris exchange immediately after the announcement.  It would appear however, that there was other related news that might have prompted the selloff, namely the Airbus investor conference in London where other announcements were made.

At the investor conference, Airbus indicated that it was cutting the production of the long-range A330 model to nine aircraft a month from the current level of ten, and a subsequent further cut in 2016, prompted by a weakening of demand for that model. Instead Airbus executives indicated that they will explore plans to develop and introduce a new A3330 neo model.

At the same conference, Airbus’s CFO reportedly indicated that the aerospace company would break even on its super jumbo A380 long-range aircraft though 2018 “if we do something on the product, or Airbus A380even if we would discontinue the product.” He also cautioned that inventory levels would rise in 2016 amid ramp-up of the new A350 program and that cash flow could be negative.

The largest existing customer for the A380 is Emirates Airways.

Earlier today, both Reuters  and The Telegraph reported that Tim Clark, the head of Emirates, was one very unhappy customer upon hearing the Airbus news concerning the A380 program. Clark indicated to Reuters that Airbus could double its investment on this aircraft if it agreed to upgrade the model.  In a telephone interview to Reuters, the Emirates CEO indicated:I am not particularly happy as you can imagine.” The article further states: “Clark said he was worried about the effect Airbus’s sombre message would have on future A380 purchases by other airlines, as well as the supply chain and the European aerospace industry which has been a darling of politicians by creating jobs.”  Clark further raised broader questions about Airbus’s product strategy for wide-bodied jets, threatening to hold Airbus’s feet to the fire to deliver all of its contracted aircraft to Emirates.

The Telegraph indicates in its reporting that on the second day of the London conference, Fabrice Bregier, head of the commercial aircraft segment sought to ease the row, indicating: “We will one day launch a 380neo, we will one day launch a stretch. This is so obvious, there is extra potential. Where is the problem with the A380?”

In our previous posting we referenced the stunning June announcement by Emirates to walk away from a 2007 deal to purchase 70 A350 aircraft. In today’s Reuters report, the Emirates CEO indicated that he wanted to look at in-service performance data on the A350 before deciding whether to place a new order.

The takeaway at this point is that in one week, Airbus has managed to get embroiled in openly communicated unhappiness among its top two most influential long-range, wide body customers. Once more, in the case of Emirates, product strategy for the expensive A380 program has become a public debate, and, at least for the moment, the Airbus supply chain ecosystem is caught in the middle.

And you might have thought that you had a bad week.

Bob Ferrari

 


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