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Supply Chain Matters Shares Our Top Ten Blog Postings in 2016

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An annual tradition for the Supply Chain Matters blog has been to look back to the prior year’s readership uptake and share with our readers the top ten blog postings of the prior year.

Admittedly, we are a bit late in compilating all of our 2016 readership data but we did want to publish this for readers, clients and sponsors.

The list provides a sense of what particular topics were of the most interest in our over 300 blog postings published in 2016.  SCM 250 76 Supply Chain Matters Shares Our Top Ten Blog Postings in 2016

In the Dave Letterman style, we start with number ten and work our way down to the number one topic of readership uptake.

Number 10:

Observations on the Rankings for Supply Chain Planning Technology (February 5, 2016)

After industry analyst firm Gartner published its Magic Quadrant Rankings for Supply Chain Planning System of Record applications in mid-January, this commentary shared observations regarding the rankings of vendors. Our takeaway was that the current landscape of supply chain planning, sales and operations planning (SO&P) and B2B supply chain network planning technology was far more influenced by line-of-business and supply chain leadership input needs and requirements. Hence many other sources of information support the buying decision beyond industry analyst rankings.

Number 9:

The Value Proposition for Cloud Computing is Broader in Scope and in Business Implications (January 22, 2016)

This Supply Chain Matters commentary explored the implications of a full Cloud-based technology suite in supporting broad supply chain business process needs after industry analyst Bob Ferrari completed nearly two days of briefings and conference presentations related to Oracle’s Cloud based technology offerings. One takeaway provided was to view Cloud from the perspective of a broader focus on an engineered suite of pre-integrated software applications that are continually updated to reflect changing business needs. Why settle for business application innovation every 1-2 years when every 6 months is an option, and with lower capital and overhead costs.

Number 8:

Sports Authority- A Disturbing Twist to Consignment Inventory Management Practices (March 17, 2016)

Characterized as one of the largest sporting-goods retailers, Sports Authority was weighted down with debt from a prior leveraged buyout a decade ago. We called attention to a disturbing development in the ongoing bankruptcy process, as the retail chain filed lawsuits with more than 160 suppliers challenging supplier claims to consigned inventories. We opined that this development had significant ramifications for supplier collaboration practices within retail as well as other consumer goods focused supply chains.

Number 7:

A Disruptor is About to Enter the Heavy Truck Equipment Market (June 20, 2016)

Supply Chain Matters has continuously provided our readers visibility to emerging industry disruptors who are leveraging advanced technology and platforms directed at supply chain related business process and asset needs.  Such visibility included the entry of Uber and Lyft and their potential to move beyond people transportation. In this posting we provided visibility to start-up Nikola Motor Company and its ongoing development of a Class 8, 2000 horsepower electric powered semi-tractor truck that will be named the Nicola One.  The actual unveiling occurred in early December.

Number 6:

Chipotle’s Consumer Trust Crisis Enters a New Critical Phase (February 9, 2016)

One of our early blogs in a series of ongoing commentaries we outlined from a supply chain lens regarding the business, brand and supply chain crisis that impacted Chipotle Mexican Grill after hundreds of consumers were sickened by a series of varying incidents ranging from E-coli outbreaks to norovirus that date back to the summer of 2015. We opined that too much attention was being applied to corporate marketing vs. supply chain and restaurant risk mitigation efforts. It is now April 2017 and the challenges to restore brand trust remain.

Number 5:

Look to the Cloud to Support the Modern B2B Network (September 1, 2016)

This blog commentary addressed an organization’s journey toward mature B2B information integration and how this is made possible by today’s advanced cloud-based platforms, applications and infrastructure. We opined that there is no question that analytics and broader, more predictive business insight capabilities are opportunities to transform B2B business and supply chain business networks. The opportunity — and indeed the necessity — is to leverage an end-to-end business network to synchronize planning, execution, customer fulfillment and more predictive decision-making needs.

Number 4:

Gartner 2016 Top 25 Supply Chain Rankings- Supply Chain Matters Initial Impressions (May 19, 2016)

Our annual commentary related to analyst firm Gartner’s Top 25 Supply Chain Rankings.  Our annual commentaries reflect our beliefs that ranking criteria can be misconstrued, especially when it tends to favor supply chains that avoid major ownership of assets and inventory, or tend to weight other criteria lower, such as sustainability and social responsibility practices.

Number 3:

A Tour of Healthcare Supply Chain Innovation in Action (February 4, 2016)

Executive Editor Bob Ferrari shared impressions and insights regarding a November 2015 visit to the Cardinal Health Healthcare Supply Chain Innovation Lab located in Concord Massachusetts.  The lab served as a hub to explore innovative technology approaches such as smart sensors and near-field communications (NFC) in addressing healthcare supply chain product demand and supply inefficiencies.

Number 2:

What are Specific Skill Needs and Gaps in Supply Chain Management? (February 26, 2016)

Supply Chain Matters highlights results and an infographic from a supply chain skills survey conducted by Canadian based Argentus Supply Chain Recruiting outlining what specific hard and soft skills are organizations looking for in their hiring and recruiting efforts. Supply chain skills and talent development content has consistently drawn reader interest.

 

And now, a drum-roll for our most read 2016 blog:

 

Airbus and Boeing Continue to Experience Supply Chain Scale-Up Challenges (May 2, 2016)

After announcing Q1 financial and operational performance results, both Airbus and Boeing addressed ongoing challenges related to their supply chains and expected performance for 2016 total aircraft delivery commitments. We shared candid comments from Airbus’s CEO as to the global producer’s most critical new product introductions and clear signs of concerns related to various supply chain challenges. We also called attention to comments from United Technologies regarding the new Pratt and Whitney geared turbofan engine, which turned out to be the weakest link in the Airbus supply chain. Finally we concluded that for the two dominant manufacturers of commercial aircraft, supply chain challenges have once again come back as concerns amid an environment of robust order backlogs. Each has different manifestations and supplier challenges, and each reflects on internal operational scale-up as well. We opined our belief that challenging product design among the most critical supply components, including aircraft engines would continue to be the linchpin towards achieving required production scale-up milestones.

 

Thanks again to all globally located Supply Chain Matters readers for your continued readership and frequent visits.

Thanks as well to our sponsors, clients, and network contacts for their continued support. We will no doubt, have yet another set of different topics of reader interest throughout 2017.

A final thought, why not consider having your company’s brand appearing as a designated sponsor or advertiser on this blog. Send us an email at info <at> supply-chain-matters <dot> com and we will respond with all of the information.

Bob Ferrari

© Copyright 2017. The Ferrari Consulting and Research Group and the Supply Chain Matters® blog. All rights reserved.


Airbus and Boeing Report Q1-2017 Delivery and Order Booking Performance

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One of our more popular blog postings tends to be our updates on either the quarterly or annual operational performance numbers for the two dominant commercial aerospace manufacturers, Airbus, and Boeing. The interest levels extend not only from supply chain participants in each of these manufacturers but across their global supply chain ecosystems.  Boeing 787 Production Line 300x200 Airbus and Boeing Report Q1 2017 Delivery and Order Booking Performance

Thus, this posting updates on the latest Q1-2017 operational data.

Overall, the operational numbers would indicate that Boeing had a relative excellent Q1 while Airbus experienced an unusual slower than expected start to 2017.

Airbus

We begin with Airbus, which reported a total of 136 commercial aircraft deliveries in the March-ending quarter. That compares with 125 total deliveries in Q1-2016. The Q1-2017 breakout includes:

107 single aisle aircraft (A320ceo, A320neo, A321ceo)

13- A330

13- A350

3- A380

In an operational review conducted in February 2015, Airbus made supply-chain wide plans to target a production rate of 50 A320’s per month by early 2017.  Thus, among the closely-watched numbers are the deliveries of the A320ceo and A320neo (new engine option). At the close of Q1, the single aisle grouping has a rather significant 5547 of backlog orders from airlines with high expectations related to improved and more fuel-efficient performance.  The Q1 report indicates that a total of 36 A320ceo and 26 A320neos were delivered in Q1. Our sense is that Airbus would have preferred these numbers to be reversed.

The new engine option (neo) features an airline choice of two available, new fuel efficient aircraft engines, either the Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan (GTF) engines or the CFM International alliance of General Electric and Safran LEAP engines. The Pratt engine was added to production in Q3-2016 while the CFM International engine has been incorporated in the recently completed quarter.

During 2016, Supply Chain Matters highlighted some significant challenges related to delayed deliveries of the new Pratt GTF engine featured on the neo model, which both significantly impacted Q3-2016 and to a lesser extent, Q4-2016 deliveries to airline customers. The GTF became a rather visible broken-link in the A320 supply chain because of ongoing issues related to operational performance in high heat or humid climatic conditions such as that reflected in certain Asia or Middle East environments. Qatar Airways has been especially vocal regarding the performance of the GTF powered A320neo. Both Bloomberg and Aviation Week have recently reported that while the new Pratt GTF engines are meeting promised 15-20 percent fuel savings, combustion chamber and bearing distress glitches continue with engines operating in certain climates. Bloomberg reported that as of the end of February, as many as 42 GTF engines had to be taken off-wing prematurely, most in environments in India, which currently has the largest fleet of operational A320neo’s.  Pratt has been responsive to operating airlines, but the new engine spares are likely coming from engines destined to support new production.  Modifications to the combustor and additional upgrades are due by the end of the third quarter.  For Airbus, the fallback is concentrating A320neo production on allocated Pratt CFM engines or the new CFM International engine which thus far is showing no signs of glitches.

Turning to new orders, Airbus reported a rather lackluster total of 6 net aircraft orders in Q1, after experiencing several cancellations during the quarter including 8 A320neo’s and 2 A380 jumbo aircraft. Total gross orders were 26 aircraft in the quarter. None the less, the traditional rule of thumb in commercial aerospace is to book more orders than actual deliveries.  As we have noted in this year’s predictions, that period may be ending.

 

Boeing

Boeing reported a total of 169 aircraft delivered in the quarter. Late last year, Boeing announced to its investors that is was going to scale-down deliveries in 2017. Boeing’s Q1-2016 deliveries were a total of 176 aircraft. The breakout for Q1-2017 included:

113-single-aisle 737’s

32-787

21-777

2-767

1-747

 

Boeing’s most critical delivery number also relates to its single-aisle 737. The more fuel efficient 737 MAX is still in the final stages of flight certification and is thus not reflected in Q1 deliveries. There are, from our lens, two positive notes from this latest quarterly report of deliveries. The first is the 32 reported deliveries of the 787 Dreamliner, an indication that prior production glitches and consequent shortfalls are likely resolved.  The 787 is produced by two separate Boeing final assembly production facilities. The other is 777 family- with the newer more fuel-efficient and technically advanced 777X family announced to the market, Boeing has done a good job of filling production slots for the now legacy 777 model.

For new orders, Boeing reported a total of 198 net new orders in Q1, a rather stunning performance considering Airbus’s Q1 order performance. This number was far ahead of the 121 net orders logged in the first quarter of 2016. The breakdown included:

167- 737’s

11- 787’s

15- 767

9-777

As our commercial aerospace readers are aware, net order performance can vary in any given quarter, with announcements tied to specific events such as major air shows or investor conferences. That stated, Airbus has several challenges to address in the coming months, both on the inbound orders flow and in addressing A320neo production glitches. Regarding the latter, we surmise that Airbus’s patience for added glitches or supply shortfalls may be on the edge.

 

Bob Ferrari

© Copyright 2017. The Ferrari Consulting and Research Group and the Supply Chain Matters® blog. All rights reserved.


The Implications of Brexit Grow Near but So Far for Industry Supply Chains

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In a published Supply Chain Matters commentary in late June of last year, we explored our initial perspectives of the new term in geopolitical events, that of Brexit. By voting to exit the European Union, the British electorate set off a series of events that many continue to describe as unprecedented.  The most cited analogy remains- “unchartered waters and political events.” Such uncertainly not only surrounds the direct impact on the United Kingdom, but on the EU alliance itself if other select countries take a similar course.

On Monday, Britain’s ambassador to the European Union informed European Council President Donald Tusk that his country would trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the formal mechanism seeking withdrawal, on March 29, a week from today. That starts the clock in a rather complex, two-year window of negotiations between Britain and the 27 other EU member nations and the European Parliament leading to the actual exit. Tusk has asked EU leaders, minus the UK, to meet on April 29 to begin discussions relative to the guidelines for Britain’s exit. In a statement, Mr. Tusk indicated that the main priority for the upcoming negotiations is to create as much certainty and clarity as possible for all citizens, countries, and member states. Supply Chain Matters could certainly suggest adding clarity to industry supply chains to Mr. Tusk’s statement.

Business and broad media all point to the start of some of the most complex negotiations either side has undertaken, with many issues to resolve over the next two years. They include trade and tariff, border security and the movement of goods.

Since the announcement of the results of the referendum, the pound sterling has had a somewhat steady decline in relation to its value with the Euro and the U.S. Dollar. As a rather positive consequence has been increased attraction of British goods among domestic and global markets.  Broad supply chain activity, as reflected by the CIPS UK Manufacturing Index, reached a significantly high value of 56.1 at the end of December, with the report noting that rates of growth in production and new orders were among the best observed over the past two-and-one-half years. Since December, this index has moderated slightly to 55.9 in January, and 54.6 in February, both reflecting healthy activity. Thus, in the short-term, the UK has garnered supply chain economic benefit related to Brexit.

The open question is course, the longer-term picture.

Entering the triggering of Article 50, British Prime Minister Theresa May has advocated for a “clean” break from the EU. She has threatened to walk away from negotiations if Britain did not get the trade deals it was seeking or if the EU tried to impose punitive measures.  She has further indicated that the UK could cut corporate taxes, loosen regulations, and could have a free trade deal with the EU that would include tariff-free access. British media including the Financial Times have interpreted such a stance as to indicate that Britain could transform itself into the low-tax Singapore of the west.  Such declarations appear to not set well with established EU countries.

Thus, a lot will transpire over the coming months and industry supply chain strategies will have find ways to navigate such a geopolitical environment. Most observers tend to believe that new trade agreements between both parties cannot be realistically negotiated and ratified by over 30 various parliaments in two years’ time. In fact, Mrs. May has indicated that the entire body of EU laws will be copied onto British statutes, and then over time modified by negotiation events and outcomes. The Economist noted in its editorials that it has recently taken nearly seven years to secure Canada’s free-trade deal with the EU.

As noted in our original commentary, two major industries dominating UK based manufacturing are automotive and the aerospace industry, the latter being focused primarily in commercial aircraft component manufacturing. Two of the most dominant stakeholder brands of autos are Volkswagen and Tata Motors, followed by Nissan and Toyota. According to Wikipedia, the aerospace industry within the U.K. is the second- or third-largest national aerospace industry in the world, depending upon the method of measurement. The industry employs around 113,000 people directly and around 276,000 indirectly and has an annual turnover of around £25 billion. Domestic companies with a large presence include BAE Systems (the world’s third-largest defense contractor), Britten-Norman, Cobham, GKN, Meggitt, QinetiQ, Rolls-Royce (the world’s second-largest aircraft engine maker), and Ultra Electronics. External companies with a major presence include Boeing, Bombardier, Airbus, Finmeccanica, General Electric, Lockheed Martin, Safran and Thales Group. As indicated in our 2017 predictions, the aerospace industry itself is believed to be reaching a 15-20 year inflection point, one that will be quite different from the past boom years of upwards of 10 year customer order backlogs.

No doubt, the invoking of Article 50 begins a period of discernable uncertainty among specific industry supply chains, related to access to key markets, financial goal performance, engineering, manufacturing, and overall talent capability.

A lot can and undoubtedly will occur, since in today’s clock speed of global business, two years can be a rather long-time, perhaps reflecting a new wave of geopolitical and technology change.

So goes this global environment of uncertainty, implications that seem near but yet so far.

Bob Ferrari

© Copyright 2017. The Ferrari Consulting and Research Group and the Supply Chain Matters® blog. All rights reserved.

 


Rolls Royce- Another Potential Weak Link for Commercial Aerospace Supply Chains

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Supply Chain Matters has highlighted some percolating supplier weak links among commercial aerospace supply chains from either financial, operational or product quality perspectives.  Certain key suppliers such as Pratt and Whitney have provided signs of such industry concern. Now, broader industry visibility to engine producer Rolls Royce is likely added.

Trent 1000 cutout 350 198 300x169 Rolls Royce  Another Potential Weak Link for Commercial Aerospace Supply Chains

Source: Rolls-Royce Image Gallery

This week, Rolls Royce reported financial and operational performance for the December-ending quarter and the headline was a $5 billion annual loss driven by a corruption scandal and negative currency factors, along with signs of premature engine component failures.

Recall that this manufacturer is a prime supplier of aircraft engines for the newest models of wide body, longer distance aircraft such as the Airbus A350 XWB and A330 aircraft and Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner.

The reported annualized loss in the latest year reflects a large, noncash accounting charge from the revaluation of U.S. currency hedges after the British pound slumped. It further includes a £671 million one-time charge for bribery settlements with U.S., British and Brazilian authorities after the company admitted to illegal business practices spanning decades.  Operating pre-tax profitability fell for a third year to £813 million from £1.43 billion a year earlier. Total revenues declined 2 percent to £13.4 billion. Chief Executive Warren East indicated to shareholders and analysts that 2017 will provide another challenging year. Shareholders responded with a reported 5 percent decline in the company’s stock value.

The UK based company has now undertaken a corporate-wide restructuring that unfortunately includes the shedding of positions. A reported 600 manager positions are being eliminated along with upwards of 2,600 job losses in the aerospace division. About 1,800 jobs are further reported as being eliminated in the ship-engine group. The company is forecasting annual savings starting at the end of this year of around £200 million as a result of such efforts.

Further, according to business media reporting, the company is preparing for the introduction of new accounting standards that will impact the reporting of near-term profitability. Rolls-Royce typically sells aircraft engines at a loss and makes up revenues during the operating phase through various pay by the hour servicing contracts with airline operators. The company buffers the early losses by booking some of the assured services revenue early. Under new accounting rules, such losses reportedly will need to be reflected immediately, while services revenue should be accounted for as-delivered.

According to reporting by The Wall Street Journal, costs associated with the Trent 1000 engines used to power Boeing Dreamliner’s have also risen as a result of turbine components degrading prematurely. Other problems include weakness in its business in equipping engines for the regional and business jet sectors where Rolls-Royce is losing ground to rivals.

Thus, as the commercial aerospace industry now enters its next industry inflection point, with overall airline order demand for larger, wide-body  aircraft is now showing signs of contraction, a potential supplier weak link is likely added.  An added irony is that Rolls can likely benefit from added automation of manufacturing and supply chain business processes along with the more leveraged use of advanced technology in areas such as improved sensing of key component operating performance parameters in its engines. Such investments can be difficult when shareholder eyes are focused on near-term profitability.

Bob Ferrari

© Copyright 2017. The Ferrari Consulting and Research Group and the Supply Chain Matters® blog. All rights reserved.


2017 Industry Specific Predictions- Commercial Aerospace Manufacturing Supply Chains

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Thus far, we have posted deep-dives on the first nine of our 2017 Predictions for Industry and Global Supply Chains.  The one prediction remaining is our final Prediction Ten, which for each year, dives into what we foresee as unique industry-specific supply chain challenges or environments for the coming year.

This year’s industry-specific challenges were especially challenging in that we contemplated adding a lot of industries, more so than prior years. In the end, we will hone in on those industries that merit additional monitoring and updates in the coming months. As Editor, I have also decided for the purposes of brevity and reader interest, to present each industry in a separate Supply Chain Matters blog posting. We will be also posting these industry-specific predictions in a faster cadence.

Our prior Prediction Ten posting, we dived into Automotive Supply Chain Residing Across North America

Next-up:

Commercial Aerospace Manufacturing Supply Chains  Boeing 787 SC 300x199 2017 Industry Specific Predictions  Commercial Aerospace Manufacturing Supply Chains

Once again, for many former and now new challenges, we have once again included commercial aircraft supply chains in our industry-specific predictions for 2017.

Commercial aerospace focused supply chains will have an especially challenging year in 2017 from several dimensions. While Airbus and Boeing both declared that they each exceeded operational performance targets in 2016, the numbers indicate that an industry inflection point is at-hand, one that has implications for the collective industry supply chain ecosystems. The overall demand for larger, wide aisle aircraft is now showing signs of contraction. Added challenges remain in the number of planned new product introductions in the coming quarters, and the industry has now discovered some weak links in supply, namely new more technologically sophisticated aircraft engines and certain other troublesome components.

Our stream of research and observations related to commercial aircraft supply chains have painted a picture of an industry that has created extraordinary levels of product demand streams by designing and manufacturing new generations of more technology laden, far more fuel efficient new aircraft. This has led to the enviable position of having order backlogs of upwards of $1.5 trillion that extend outwards of ten years. At the same time, an industry with a track record of prior challenges in its ability to more rapidly scale-up overall aircraft production levels are clashing with the industry dynamics of both Airbus and Boeing in their desire to deliver higher margins, profitability, and more timely shareholder returns.

Smack in the middle of these dynamics are relationships among suppliers, a need to continue to invest in expanded production capacity and innovation capability and now meet shareholder return needs. Suppliers have been buffeted by various OEM demands for larger cost and productivity savings. In the specific case of Boeing, suppliers to the wide body 787 program are now being asked to step-down pricing related to prior volume ramp-up needs as Boeing seeks to better balance new order flows with annual production.

A Declared Industry Inflection Point

Aviation Week, a well-respected and highly followed industry publication made a declaration in an early January 2017 commentary: The End of the Airbus-Boeing Supercycle. (Free complimentary sign-up account required)

This declaration declares:

After a remarkable 12-year boom, world aircraft industry output growth sputtered to a halt in 2016. The market fell 1.2% (in constant dollars) relative to 2015, the first aggregate decline since 2003. While military demand remains robust, most civil segments are feeling the impact of negative macroeconomic and geopolitical developments.”

This commentary further observes:

The jetliner market is just finishing a 12-year supercycle. Airbus and Boeing guidance, until recently, indicated that they expect a 17-year supercycle. That now looks unlikely to happen. For some time now, there has been a disconnect between airliner market prosperity and the rest of the world economy, which is seeing higher instability and slower growth. The jetliner industry, unfortunately, is falling in line with that macro environment.”

While Aviation Week anticipates some modest growth in commercial aircraft deliveries this year, it will be half-that experienced over the past 12 years. Most order growth going forward is anticipated in the single-aisle segment with the twin-aisle market being declared as flat at best. Meanwhile, jet fuel prices are again rising adding more financial pressures on airlines to operate more efficiently.

Implications

For the industry’s respective multi-tier supply chain, the implications of this inflection point are sobering for planning windows through the year 2020. After 2020, the industry may well be in a decline from the current 12-year cycle. The decline of new order flows for higher margin wide aisle aircraft place the major emphasis on narrower margin single-aisle aircraft that must produce higher volumes to meet financial business objectives.

The notions of euphoria in multi-year order backlogs will likely be replaced with more conservative, but far more detailed planning pitting OEM’s and suppliers at-odds with mutual win-win financial performance objectives.  The challenge for Airbus and Boeing will be in implementing increased production automation, higher levels of end-to-end, multi-tier supply chain visibility with far more informed supply chain wide insights and business intelligence.

Other Supply Chain Challenges

New Product Introduction

As was the case in the prior three years, the industry again has important NPI milestones this year.

For U.S., based Boeing, the first 737 MAX 8 is scheduled to delivered to Southwest Airlines in the first-half of this year, followed by 737 MAX 9 model later in the year. This aircraft has been five years in development and will feature a far more automated production process that must now be ramped to expected volumes. An expanded 787-10 Dreamliner, designed to carry more passengers and utilizing more carbon fiber content is scheduled for first flight this spring. For the first time, Boeing North Charlestown facility will have sole manufacturing responsibility for this model.

European based Airbus likewise has important NPI milestones this year. The second iteration of Airbus’s revamped single-aisle family, the A321 neo (new engine option), will enter service in 2017. It will represent the largest member of the updated A320 neo family and has significant dependencies on newly designed, more fuel-efficient engines being supplied by CFM International along with Pratt & Whitney. The 366-seat long-range A350-1000 representing the biggest twin-engine jet Airbus has ever designed, with eventually compete with the Boeing 777-300ER. First customer ship to flagship customer Qatar Airways is scheduled for late 2017 and this airline has had a pointed relationship with Airbus regarding meeting expectations.

Weak or Critical Links

Commercial aircraft supply chains are often described as constantly dealing with exceptions or surprises. Whether it is an unexpected notice of late-delivery from a key supplier, components that unexpectedly slip from meeting highly engineered conformance standards, or having full visibility to events or risks occurring across the extended supply chain.  With the current wave of new, more technologically laden aircraft models, engineering specifications are more demanding and new process technologies such as 3D printing and other additive or automated manufacturing techniques are now present. Yet, amid such an environment, the industry is now hard at work meeting and sustaining higher volume production and supply chain cadence needs.

One of the most critical supply links in 2017 will be that of aircraft engine manufactures, which collectively must now transition revolutionary new designed engines into meeting high- volume manufacturing and customer delivery requirements of aircraft OEMS.

In the single-aisle aircraft category, two prime manufacturers, CFM International (joint venture of Safran Aircraft Engines of France and General Electric Aircraft Engines) and Pratt & Whitney, are prime power plant options based on airline selection. CFM had planned to deliver a total of 100 of its new LEAP engines in 2016, but could deliver but 77. For 2017, 500 LEAP engine deliveries are being planned. For Pratt, a series of highly visible supply chain related challenges related to the new geared turbo-fan (GTF) PurePower engines contributed to a delay in deliveries for the Airbus A320 neo and Bombardier C-Series programs. In 2016, Pratt delivered 138 GTF engines, 62 of which were in the final Q4 quarter. Pratt plans to produce between 350-400 engines in 2017, but some identified component reliability issues have some of these engines designated as spares to support airline uptime requirements. Any subsequent slippage or delivery disruptions from either of these two engine suppliers will likely impact planned OEM deliveries to customers.

In the wide-aisle, long distance aircraft segment, Rolls Royce and its family of Trent engines have served as the workhorses of these larger, more fuel-efficient aircraft. For the past three years, Rolls has been challenged with profitability performance as well as allegations of bribery practices related to sales of various products. Revenues from commercial aircraft engines currently make-up upwards of one-half of revenues, yet Rolls has not been able to control costs related to design and manufacturing.  A new restructuring plan calls for this aerospace engine provider to double production levels by 2020, which is being described as the fastest ramp-up in its history. The company is headquartered in the United Kingdom, and thus any effects of Brexit in terms of currency, trade, or tariff issues are a further open question.

While on the topic of Brexit, the United Kingdom hosts several aerospace providers who serve the technology and equipment component needs of various global commercial aircraft manufacturers. Depending on the outcome of the European Union and British exit terms related to currency, tariffs, taxes, trade and population movement, aircraft model producers may well have to assess any impacts to costs, pricing and added risks.

 

This concludes our 2017 prediction related specially to commercial aerospace supply chains.

In our next posting, related to Prediction Ten, we will dive into consumer packaged goods and beverage focused supply chains.

Readers are reminded to review all our prior 2017 predictions postings.  And a final reminder, all ten of our 2017 predictions will be available in a full research report which we expect to be available for downloading in our Research Center by February 10th.

Bob Ferrari

© Copyright 2017. The Ferrari Consulting and Research Group and the Supply Chain Matters® blog. All rights reserved.


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