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Airbus and Boeing Both Declare Another Year of Outstanding Operational Performance in 2014

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In the commercial aerospace sector, both Airbus and Boeing both declared that they each exceeded operational targets for 2014.  However, the supply chain ecosystems for each of these manufacturers have continual challenges to perform even better in the months to come.

Today, Airbus announced that it achieved a new record of 629 aircraft deliveries in 2014, representing an increase for the 13th consecutive year. That compares to the 626 aircraft delivered during 2013.

The breakdown of deliveries consisted of:

490 A320 model aircraft

108 A330 aircraft

30 A380 super jumbo aircraft

Initial A350 XWB to launch customer Qatar Airways

Airbus was challenged at the last minute in delivery of the launch A350 but overcame issues of customer customized equipment needs to make its 2014 milestone.

On the inbound customer demand side, the aerospace provider booked 1456 net orders from 67 customers making its year-end backlog to be 6386 aircraft valued in excess of $919 billion. If the Airbus supply chain were to continue to support and sustain its current shipment volume performance, the current order book represents in excess of 10 years of production.

Airbus program development highlights in 2014 included the maiden flight of the rather popular A320neo which is currently scheduled for operational certification in Q3, and first customer delivery in Q4 of this year.

Last week, Boeing announced that it had achieved delivery of 723 aircraft, a record for the most commercial aircraft delivered in a single year. That compares to 648 aircraft delivered in 2013. The breakdown of deliveries included:

485 737 program aircraft

99 777 program aircraft

114 787 Dreamliner program aircraft including the first 787-9 launch model.

Similar to Airbus, Boeing was challenged with December deliveries of 787’s and other wide body aircraft because of a supplier shortage of premium seating. All three of Boeing’s final assembly facilities each set new milestones for aircraft delivery volume. On the inbound side, Boeing booked 1432 net orders bringing its year-end backlog to 5789 aircraft, a declared all-time high. The company recorded 1355 net orders in 2013. If the Boeing supply chain were to continue to support current shipment volume, the current order book represents in excess of 8 years of production.

Boeing program development highlights included the launch of the 787-9 in 2014 and the planned assembly of the first 737 MAX scheduled for this year.

No doubt, the supply chain and product management teams and ecosystems of both Airbus and Supply Chain Matters Tip of the Hat AwardBoeing went the extra mile in successfully achieving each of the 2014 operational milestones.  We extend our Supply Chain Matters Tip of the Hat recognition for their efforts, and hopefully, bonus goals were achieved and compensated.

Moving forward, 2015 brings expectations of even greater operational performance coupled with the needs to scale-up delivery cadence to even higher levels. As noted in a previous commentary, commercial aerospace supply chains exist in good and not so good news realities. All of the current backlogged customer orders need to be delivered to airline customer expectations for timing, anticipated reliability and performance.  Once again, there is a very strong reliance on the performance of the extended supply network and in solid operations and risk management.

Congratulations to all.

Bob Ferrari


Top Ten 2014 Supply Chain “E” Lessons from a Process Industry Lens

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Throughout 2014, Supply Chain Matters has provided a number of insights related to the increased importance of B2B business networks among multiple industry settings.  We were thus rather pleased to read of the top ten supply chain “E” lessons of the year from the lens of Elemica, a process industry focused B2B supply chain network technology provider. The lessons were assimilated from real customer experiences and Elemica’s involvement to help businesses move forward in the New Year.

Included in these 2014 lessons learned are observations that supply chains are becoming more of an ecosystem, rather than disparate parts and that an outside-in perspective that integrates and synchronizes product, demand, and supply networks to optimize joint value have become important alignment objectives. Other lessons included are the movement away from a sole manufacturing, to more of a supply chain view linking end-to-end supply and demand visibility. From our lens, that is a rather noteworthy important learning among process based manufacturers.

Other noted lessons include building better relationships with B2B social collaboration methods, more emphasis on predictive and prescriptive analytics and a concentrated effort toward a single view of business via unified master data management (MDM).

Bob Ferrari


General Motors Attempts to Turn to a New Chapter of Growth, Customer Loyalty and Supply Chain Practices

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The public relations teams supporting General Motors have been in high gear these past weeks for obvious reasons.  Lapses in product design and quality management practices, and what has been billed by business and general mediaas the worst U.S. product safety crisis in recent memory has led to a series of product recalls among multiple GM brands involving upwards of 2.6 million vehicles.

GM desperately needs to move beyond its current state and restore confidence in its brands and in its business management model.  Suppliers and partners associated with supporting this U.S. based OEM need to also move on to more collaborative and win-win relationships, but that requires a different GM perspective.

When Mary Barra was appointed CEO of General Motors, this author communicated our Supply Chain Matters elation for this announcement. Our enthusiasm came from the dual fact that not only was Barra the first senior female executive ever to lead a global automobile manufacturer, but more importantly, because her 35 year background included plant management, manufacturing, product design and development leadership experience. She is also an engineer by training. Barra likely understands the elements of producing high quality cars and trucks and the important contribution of the GM supply chain ecosystem in achieving that goal.

If readers want to gain a candid perspective on Mary Barra’s current challenges in transforming GM, we recommend the recently published Time article, Mary Barra’s Bumpy Ride at the Wheel of GM. Author Rana Foroohar pens an insightful perspective on Barra’s management style and her efforts to change a rather in-bred corporate culture built around functional fiefdoms and little accountability. She describes Barra as the consummate “outsider-insider” with a far different style from most of her CEO predecessors. She has been put in charge to become the change agent and apparently has the support of many of GM’s employees in that task.  In our previous commentary in December 2013, we called attention to the Wall Street Journal characterizing Barra as “having a reputation for speaking her mind, a trait that hasn’t always been appreciated in GM’s executive suite.”

This week, business and general media are featuring reports of GM’s latest earnings announcement. The WSJ reported that after nine months, Barra wants to switch gears towards a multi-year strategy to deliver increased revenues and profits while restoring consumer trust. She explained to a group of GM’s top 300 executives that the company must do what it takes to be the “world’s most valued automotive company”.  The going forward strategy leans heavily on reliance on planned new models expected to come to market, many of which were shepherded under the leadership of Barra when she previously led new product development. A goal is to have 47 percent of global sales to be fueled by these new models by 2019. It further includes market expansion and growth within China through investing in five additional auto assembly plants and he introduction of nine new Cadillac models in that country.

GM will further focus on the broader supply chain’s contribution to its renewed business goals.

According to a recent WSJ report, there is an internal belief that GM pays more than its competitors for materials and technology because the company bases parts purchases on unrealistically high forecasts that burden suppliers with high fixed costs when ultimate demand falls short. Our community is more blunt in such an explanation: it is lousy forecasting predicated on achieving functional stovepiped goals. The WSJ quotes some analysts as indicating that the automaker could save upwards of $1 billion a year with smarter purchasing practices, which as we know, is a typical Wall Street short-term perspective these days. Squeeze those suppliers!

GM’s existing product development chief, Mark Reuss, actually met with executives representing 700 suppliers indicating that the company is ready to share more financial risks if sales projections are high. At that same meeting, GM’s purchasing boss, Grace Lieblein indicated that the supplier base will likely need to add capacity to support growth plans. In a Detroit Free Press published report, she is quoted as stating: “we just have to be cautious and strategic about how we add that capacity and not move too fast.” Lieblein further communicated that an important strategy is convincing suppliers to locate closer to GM assembly plants to reduce transportation costs.

Obviously that’s a tall order for suppliers since transportation cost savings do not necessarily weight themselves to the benefit of the supplier. Adding production capacity to support additional volume and spreading that capacity further across the globe requires a significant financial investment. Add some history of throwing suppliers “under the bus” when quality plans go south because of component design flaws, well, you get the picture of legacy trust.

The new era of GM obviously requires what Barra has described as bold thinking and leadership. What this author was hoping to read is that goal of GM’s supply chain going forward is to support continued product innovation while controlling costs and accelerating productivity. Perhaps that will be articulated in the coming months.

It is this author’s view that such thinking can benefit by a broader and deeper perspective by GM’s executive leaders on how more modernized supply chain business practices, new product introduction (NPI) practices incorporated to supply chain impacts, more collaborative based inventory and supply chain planning practices  have led to benefits among other industries as well as other automotive OEM’s. Today’s supply chain and B2B business network technology capabilities can further link the global end-to-end supply chain with more granular levels of planning and supply chain execution synchronization.  

The business practices and enabling technology are available but it requires a good dose of change management infusion before real benefits can flow. We trust GM will hence forth nurture the leadership to set such perspectives.

Bob Ferrari

© 2014 The Ferrari Consulting and Research Group LLC and Supply Chain Matters. All rights reserved.


First Airbus A320neo Completes Important Maiden Flight

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This week, a significant milestone occurred for the global supply chain ecosystem of the new generation Airbus A320 aircraft. The first Airbus A320neo completed its maiden flight at 2:22pm local time yesterday after its two-and-a-half test run flown by Airbus’s experimental test pilots over southern France. The maiden flight comes weeks ahead of prior program expectations. Video and a complete program overview can be viewed via the Airbus web site

Airbus A320neo

The Neo (new engine option) of the workhorse A320 includes newly designed more fuel-efficient aircraft engines with incremental innovations in aerodynamics and updated cabin features. That aside, the most significant customer feature for the Neo and its promised, more enhanced fuel burning efficiency expected to be upwards of 20 percent more efficient. The A320neo family will consist of A319 and A321 variants as well, the latter offering seating up to 240 passengers. Airbus touts the A320 as the globe’s best-selling single aisle aircraft and thus the program stakes are especially high. To date, the A320neo has garnered 3200 orders involving 60 customers and thus more innovative, stepped-up production cadence will be an important requirement for the end-to-end supply chain.

The aircraft for the maiden voyage was powered by two of the newest Pratt and Whitney PW1100G-JM engines which features that supplier’s new geared-turbofan technology. According to Pratt, the engine successfully completed its first development flight in May of last year and has completed 11,000 hours of testing across the supplier’s PurePower engine family. The stakes for Pratt are additionally high with its newest innovative geared turbofan technology. The Neo is also offered with CFM International’s LEAP-1A power plant as an airline customer option. The LEAP-1B engine was selected as the prime power plant for Boeing’s planned 737 MAX aircraft, which is the prime competitive offering in contrast to the A320neo. According to CFM, there are already orders amounting to 6770 LEAP family engines.

This maiden flight milestone kicks-off 3000 hours of rigorous flight test process involving upwards of eight aircraft with various options and engine options. As Supply Chain Matters has noted in many prior aerospace industry highlighted commentaries, many things can be discovered in the flight testing process, some with reverberations up and down the supply chain. The A320neo with Pratt engines is currently planned to enter service in the fourth quarter of 2015, with the first airline customer being Qatar Airways.

Supply Chain Matters Tip of the Hat AwardOnce again, we tip our hat to the entire Airbus A320 supply chain ecosystem and team members for reaching this significant milestone.

 


Germany’s ZF to Acquire TRW Automotive for Product Innovation Leveraging

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The current waves of industry acquisition frenzy continue as cheap money remains available, and as usual, industry supply chains are impacted.

Today’s business headlines include a massive deal involving two global automobile systems, components and parts suppliers.  ZF Friedrichshafen AG announced its intent to acquire TRW Automotive Holdings in a reported all-cash deal that is estimated to be in excess of $11 billion.  According to reports, this deal would form an industry supplier with combined annual revenues near $41 billion, rivaling the size of other major global industry suppliers Robert Bosch and Denso. Under the deal, TRW would become an integrated but separate operating unit of ZF. The combined research and development investment portfolio exceeds $2 billion. This transaction requires several closing conditions and the approval of TRW stockholders, and is expected to close in the first-half of 2015.

According to the press release and statements from ZF’s CEO, the prime motivation for this combination is combining of product innovation resources applied to markets in electro-mobility and autonomous driving.  TRW Automotive is a supplier of automotive integrated safety electronics, sensors, steering, suspension and integrated braking systems. TRW’s production and supply chain resources are global in scope and include support for major automotive production regions of United States, Europe, Asia and Latin America. ZF is a closely-held global supplier in transmission driveline, axle and chassis technology with 122 facilities in 26 countries and is a major supplier to German based mainline and premium model OEMS’s including Volkswagen. Combined, both suppliers will more than double revenues in support of major regions of China and the United States, and be able to support a fairly broad area of automotive and truck component system supply needs. With its combination with TRW, ZF has the opportunity to significantly increase its revenues and presence in the U.S. market.

The talks between these two automotive industry suppliers have been percolating for some time, and according to a published report from The Wall Street Journal, other suppliers such as Delphi Automotive, BorgWarner and AutoLiv have each expressed interest in “bulking up through acquisitions” in order to have sufficient scale to further stay ahead of product innovation needs to support various global automotive OEM’s. OEM’s have a desire to move forward in electric drivetrains and autonomous driving systems but prefer that system component innovation come from Tier One and other suppliers.

This wave of acquisitions involves other industry as well. Business headlines today include reports of a percolating massive mega-deal between Anheuser-Busch InBev and SAB Miller that could involve upwards of $122 billion. That would involve the combination of two of the world’s largest brewers and according to the WSJ, put control of nearly one-third of global beer supply under one company, and a wide range of brands.

The beat goes on and industry supply chains will have to continue to deal with the opportunities and/or consequences.

Bob Ferrari

 


The Day of the Big Apple Product Announcements- Will the Supply Chain Deliver on High Expectations?

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In a few short hours, Apple will once again announce a new set of innovative products to the global community amid a flurry of social and business media posts, streaming commentary and headlines. Announcements are expected on the new iPhone 6 models that will include more elegant physical design, innovative materials such as sapphire-based screens, as well as new functionality. Pundits further expect the long-awaited announcement of the wearable iWatch along with a new iPad model that features a super large screen version.

As we have noted in prior Supply Chain Matters commentary, the one certain thing at the end of today is that Apple’s supply chain ecosystem remains under the gun to deliver on the collection of high expectations. There are continued reports of big bets on expected shipments to be supported for the upcoming holiday period, production yield challenges associated with last-minute design change involving the larger screen displays of the iPhone 6, as well as reports of a simultaneous and the unpredicted Q1 introduction of the rumored 12.9 inch iPad in conjunction with the announced Apple-IBM alliance focused on business applications enablement.

TechCrunch recently posted a commentary citing sources indicating that Apple is already tying up air freight capacity out of China for the forthcoming months as it floods channels with last-minute shipments, which is reportedly causing some delays for other manufacturers. Whether that’s true or not, it reflects a certain state. The scramble is in high gear and all hands are expected to be on-deck on a global-wide basis in the coming weeks awaiting input from Apple’s Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) process.

Every year at this point, we have noted that Apple’s supply chain is about to be put to the ultimate test. Every year, the stakes seem to get higher and more complex.  Like all of our readers, we await the forthcoming chapter in this saga. Can the number one rated supply chain ecosystem repeat in meeting the high expectations and business outcomes of its demanding business partners? Will other high tech and consumer electronics supply chains feel additional impacts?

We will all know the results and the implications in Q1.

Bob Ferrari

 


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